And then there’s Andrew Bailey. The Governor’s communication strategy has been, shall we say, erratic. One minute he’s hawkish, talking tough on wage-price spirals; the next he’s dovish, acknowledging the lagged pain of the previous fourteen hikes. The markets are currently pricing in a cut later this year, but they’re also pricing in a lot of wishful thinking and perhaps a G&T too many at lunch. The reality in Threadneedle Street is a standoff between the hawks who see the pound weakening on global turmoil and the doves who see the grim reaper knocking on the doors of small businesses. The smart money in the City isn’t betting on a definitive move either way; it’s betting on a painfully awkward split vote and a statement so dense with caveats and ‘data-dependent’ jargon that it will be utterly useless for anyone trying to plan their business for the next six months. This is the new normal: paralysis masquerading as prudence.
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